Growth Bets
Stack the odds in your favor
We identify your best customers, understand what they value most, and help you build offers that acquire, retain, and expand more like them.
We help companies like yours save time and money by validating good ideas before spending a ton of time and money developing bad ones.
In today's fast-moving environment, companies can't afford to make product and marketing decisions based solely on guesswork (or AI).Every wrong turn costs valuable time, resources, and market opportunity. At Growth Bets, we shift the odds in your favor by applying The Forensic Approach to Product-Market Fit to transform uncertainty into calculated decisions.Before you invest heavily in building, launching, or fixing products, we help you uncover the evidence that predicts success.
Uncertainty can be paralyzing for your business.
We've seen this a thousand times (or more):
Lots of insight—no impact.
Shipping features—but no growth.
Founder intuition worked—until it didn't.
Experiments galore—but no real traction.
Followed all the playbooks—but nothing seems to work.
And there is no shortage of information being crammed down your throat. You follow all the "best practices," but aren't getting "best results."We get it; it's frustrating. We see you. This is the reason we started Growth Bets.
We help companies save time and money by validating ideas. We help you find the right customers, a strategy to acquire and keep them that fits you like a tailored suit, and actionable steps your team can execute.After an engagement with Growth Bets, you aren't given an unactionable 50-page deck and sent on your way—you are given direction on what to do next (or first) and why.Growth Bets takes it from country music superstar Toby Keith and delivers "A little less talk and a lot more action."
Are you facing any of these product and marketing challenges?
Market Strategy Challenges
Want to enter a new market and increase the odds of success?
Want to know if your messaging is landing and converting?
Product Development Uncertainty
Building a new product and want to see if customers would buy it?
Want to see how a new feature will perform before you build it?
Customer Retention Issues
Want to find and fix the reasons customers are churning (or why you are losing deals)?
Want an early warning signal when customers' expectations shift?
We overcome these challenges by shifting your level of confidence.
The Solution: The Forensic Approach to Product-Market Fit
Drawing from investigative techniques used to solve complex cases, our proprietary Forensic Approach to Product-Market Fit brings together precision and speed to market research.Just as detectives follow evidence to uncover the truth, we systematically gather, analyze, and interpret market signals to reveal what customers truly value and why they make purchasing decisions.
This evidence-based methodology eliminates guesswork by:
Gathering Unbiased Evidence - We collect reliable data from multiple sources rather than relying on assumptions
Following the Money Trail - We track what customers actually pay for, not just what they say they want
Identifying Patterns - We detect recurring behavior patterns that predict future purchasing decisions
Establishing Motive - We uncover the underlying reasons behind customer choices
Building an Airtight Case - We construct compelling evidence that validates (or invalidates) your product hypotheses
Unlike traditional market research that often skims the surface, our forensic investigation digs deeper to reveal the hidden drivers of customer behavior. By applying proven investigative principles to market analysis, we deliver insights with a level of confidence typically unavailable through conventional methods.The result? A repeatable system for growth that stacks the odds in your favor by validating ideas before you invest significant time and resources.
Our process:
We use detective-grade forensic techniques to diagnose problems, evaluate the signs and symptoms, and offer a treatment plan unlike an other research agency out there. How do we know this? Because we have the experience or real-detectives backed by academic rigor (our founder was a detective and now hold a doctorate).Here's how it works:
Identification - We identify the right customers to get the data we need
Pinpoint Value Drivers - We get to the MOTIVEs behind your customer's behavior
Build the Offer - We tell you what to include in your offer (what to do next and why)
BONUS: There actually is a fourth step. Real-world testing. We help with this, too.
What makes our process so powerful is that it uses the same abductive approach that detectives use.
You can take comfort that this process is both rigorous and fast. Your product, engineering, and marketing teams won't be blocked waiting on insights—they'll have what they need to make decisions—without delay.
How this help your business predictably grow?
We identify your best customers, understand what they value most, and build offers that acquire, retain, and expand more like them.
And then we tell you exactly what to do next to deliver a scalable product with tangible value to a well-defined market segment.
How about pricing?
We hate it when pricing isn't transparent. So we put it front and center.Our engagement works on a monthly sprint model that includes:
An all-inclusive service, i.e., we take care of the research for you (our job is to make customer and market learning as painless as possible)
Alignment on the key question you want answered
A summary brief containing our investigational findings AND clear direction for next steps (we deliver decisions, not just data)
A deep-dive dossier that gives you the details of WHO we spoke with, their mental models, other interesting findings, and specific direction on what to do next
In addition, you get all the interview transcripts and recordings (raw data) so that nothing is shrouded in secrecy
The goal is to allow your team to explore the findings in a way that best fits their learning style without having to rely on lengthy DIY interviews or “black box” technology that you can’t be sure delivers accurate answers.Our program is most effective as a continuous learning program, consisting of at least 3 or more sprints.
We deliver confident decisions for only $15,000 / sprint (month).
Growth Bets can help you with:
New product validation
Market entry strategy
Feature prioritization
Customer churn reduction
Messaging optimization
Competitive investigations
Who we are.
👋, I’m Ari, as a criminal investigator turned customer detective, I truly am the Sherlock Holmes of Product-Market Fit. I have helped companies build winning products at Twitter, Panasonic, Gtmhub, Twilio, Indeed, and more.I believe in truth, justice, the Oxford comma, and NY-style pizza 🍕.
Still have questions?
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